Thursday, November 1, 2007

Cyristal Clear Ice

www.instructables.com has a number of simple but quite interesting solution to our little problems.

I didn't know that making a cyristal clear ice cubes tales 1- using purified water 2-boilng and cooling the water and again boiling cooling (double boiling eliminates dissolved air in the water and decomposes minerals in the water ! dissolved air + minerals +dust)

Euro vs USD Rate


How long more USD will lose vs Euro? Today's intrest rate cut by the US Fed will surely boost the US exports and rate against other cırrencies. Signals to buy dollars.

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Leverage and valuation

1- Debt / Total Assets change in capital structure. And therefore equity changes.
2- As debt protion increases interest rate increases
3- Sales, costs, RFr, Risk premium, EBIT are the same
4- Total Assets are the same. ( Total Assets are the same, debt in structure goes up, total equity goes down)

Results
1- WACC goes up thus the value of the firm goes down
2- EPS calculated on net income goes down when company borrows more (Because equity goes down)
3- EPS calculated EBIT goes up when company borrows more.

Therefore,
For the local shareholder, increasing the debt amount in the capital structure will not hit P&L. Even when the sales are same under different debt scenarios, the higher the debt, the lesser the equity and the more EPS of EBIT. The mistake the foreign did when purchasing local shares was agreeing with the local partner on EBITx multiplier not net income x multiplier When all of the above is happening, the value of the company doesn't change.Plus when KS calls, the local partner will also sell his liability of debt to foreigner so it is a win - win case for the locals.

EBIT X or EBITDA X valuation methods dont usually work for companies with huge bank loans.

Basel II

Basel II will be effective in 2009 in Turkey,

With Basel II Banks will

1-Ensure that capital allocation is more risk sensitive;
2- Separating operational risk from credit risk, and quantifying both;

First step banks will take will be calculation of credit risk, operational risk and market risk then to move on to calculating systemic risk, pension risk, concentration risk, strategic risk, reputation risk, liquidity risk and legal risk.

All of these analysis will only result in more analysis and less funding on banks' point of view and thus less economical activity and expensive funding. So Loss - Loss situation for Turkey and developing countries.

Synergy




Synergy Calculation Steps


1. Value each firm separately, projecting out free cashflows and terminal value.

2. Value the combined firm assuming no synergy. (Add up the present values for the two firms estimated in step 1)

3. Prepare a cashflow statement for the combined firm by just adding up the items on the individual firms' statements.

4. Evaluate where the gains from synergy are going to come from. (Higher revenue growth or lower costs)

5. Translate the synergy gain into money on the combined statement. If revenues are going to grow faster because of the synergy
apply a faster growth rate to revenue in the combined statement. If costs are going to be cut, show the reductions in costs on the statement.

6. Calculate the value of the combined firm with the changes made in step 5.

7. Compare to the value in step 2. The difference is the synergy gain. This is the MOST that one should as a takeover premium.







Satan as Dore epicts

As depicted by Dore, the figure is just like an heavenly angel but the thoughts and looks show confusion and irritation as if he was to prove as an opposing power to the God who has fired him out of heaven. What a fascination from abomination.

Heaven and Hell According to Dante